Can Your Money Weather the Storm? Smart ways to find out ahead of time!

minji92 2025년 06월 15일

2,112

Who hasn't had an investment experience where they thought, "That can't happen?" and then it did?

In my wealth management consulting practice, the most frustrating moment is when clients say, "I didn't see it coming." The 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 coronavirus shock, the 2022 inflation... I've seen people lose money each time because they "didn't see it coming." But was it really unexpected?

I recently had a client say to me, "Sir, I thought I was investing safely, so why did my account balance get wiped out by half?" I looked at his portfolio and realized that while he was ostensibly diversified, all of his assets were actually moving in the same direction.

At that moment, I realized that I needed a simulation that would allow me to experience a "real crisis" instead of just backtesting!

Prompt.

복사

# Asset risk scenario simulation framework

## Level 1: Historical crisis reenactment testing

- 1997 FX Crisis Scenario: [exchange rate spikes, stock market crashes].

- 2008 Subprime Crisis: [credit crunch, real estate collapse].

- 2020 Pandemic Shock: [Real economy paralyzed, volatility spikes]

## Level 2: Designing future risk scenarios.

* Geopolitical risks: war, trade disputes, political instability

* Economic structural changes: prolonged high interest rates, deflation

* Technological innovation shock: AI substitution, industrial restructuring

## Level 3: Personalized Stress Testing

- Reduced income/job loss scenarios

- Unexpected spending shocks, such as spikes in healthcare costs

- Measure psychological thresholds for each investment personality

Based on my current [asset mix and investment goals], I'd like you to suggest portfolio improvements that would help me survive the worst-case scenario.

The results of my portfolio review with this simulation were shocking, as I realized that a portfolio that normally returns 8% per year could drop as much as -45% in a 2008-level crisis.

I immediately put in place defenses: I increased my cash allocation, added safe-haven assets like gold, and reallocated my volatile assets after thoroughly analyzing their correlations, prioritizing "survivability" at the expense of yield.

Six months later, when the market correction actually came, my portfolio was down -3% while others were down -20%. More importantly, I had the psychological space to take advantage of additional buying opportunities.

Risk simulation isn't just a numbers game; it's a trip back in time to meet your future self.

What storms are your assets weathering right now? Why not take a look ahead?

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